A co-infection model for multi-strain dynamics of dengue virus with temporary cross-immunity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5540/03.2023.010.01.0007Palabras clave:
Dengue Virus, Cross-immunity, Co-infection, Multi-strain DynamicsResumen
Dengue virus (DENV) belongs to the Flaviviridae family and is an RNA virus that is primarily spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In this paper, we propose a new multi-strain dengue transmission model that accounts for temporary cross-immunity and co-infection. We developed an in-house MATLAB code and performed simulations for diferent epidemic scenarios. We conduct numerical simulations of the model for two diferent epidemic scenarios, one without temporary cross-immunity and one with temporary cross-immunity, to gain deeper insights into the complex dynamics of dengue transmission with multiple strains. Our results reveal that strain 3 has a higher basic reproduction number than the other two strains, indicating that it is more transmissible. We also observe a unique pattern in the infection curve for the human population due to the efects of cross-immunity and co-infection with strains 1 and 2, which initially decreases but then increases again, reaching a peak approximately 180 days after the initial infections. Our ndings suggest that the proposed model can be useful in predicting the transmission dynamics of dengue with multiple strains.
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